TWX Probable Profits

Pay me money.

Well, I lost some money in the stock market after investing in Time Warner (TWX) after the release of the Ben Affleck flick, Argo. Once again I learned why staking your money for such a short period of time based on a small portion of the overall profit calculation for TWX is not a wise decision. But at least I’m learning, we are learning together. As we follow up on what we learned from this experiment it is crucial that we take into account our findings, so that we don’t lose money in the same fashion as we did previously.

Today we look at a few different sources as they announce their position on the TWX stock overall, we incorporate this information, if credible, into our own analysis to assess the probability of profitability, if any such exist. We may find that it may have not been a wise decision to invest in TWX for a month as I did previously. The Street and Market Watch list TWX as a buy option, whereas Zack’s analysis maintains a HOLD status. But who is Zacks and what is their supporting data leading to a HOLD status of TWX?

By simply scrolling to the bottom of Zacks.com I was able to locate the About Zacks link. The first thing my eyes were drawn to a was the following in bold, “Earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices” Len Zacks PhD form MIT, founder of Zacks research. Like every other investment research company they humbly brag about being a leading industry resource and then on the same page they give it to you straight, just as The Street does, “Zacks rank is completely mathematical. It’s cold. It’s objective. The Zacks Rank does not care what the hype on the street says.” Therefore if they take out the rumors and assimilate their equations with raw data to analyze prospective stocks by means of analytical analysis.

It appears that the stock market has been doing for years, what analytical social media data is currently mimicking. Analysis of purely analytical information is the market research for stocks as well as consumers engaging in social media. That was purely a tangent but relevant for another blog entry in the future.

The Street and Market Watch are confident on the success of the TWX stock due to recent success and upcoming proven profitable ventures. In a nutshell, as reported on The Street, TWX earnings growth has helped raise shares by 26.69% within the past year, it has improved it’s earnings per share by 10.3% in the most recent quarter, and the debt-to-equity ratio is somewhat low at 0.66. One last point The Street points out is “The firm exceeded the industry average cash flow growth rate of 6.52%” (TheStreet.com).Market Watch reports the upcoming money makers that TWX is about to release, “Time Warner is excited about its prospects in films, especially with the success of “The Dark Knight Rises” and the promise of a “Hobbit” franchise in the works.”  To sum up, judging TWX’ performance in the most recent quarter, the low debt-to-equity ratio, and promise in upcoming projects, Time Warner investors may have something to look forward to for the upcoming 2013.

So who do we trust for our information? The Street claims to use cold, objective numbers just as Zacks claims, and yet the two have different outcomes for the status of the stock. It comes down to trust and track record of the research firm. All the numbers and data used between each firm is constant, their analytical calculations differ. The one thing the stock market isn’t…predictable. Therefore, I can run numbers on trends, past successes, and predict future trends, but never actually pinpoint the success of a stock. The only assurance I have are my knowledge of a stock, the market, and know my limitations. This may sound vague but it is a great stepping stone to getting your feet wet. Baby steps.

Contributing Sources:

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/87337/the-zacks-analyst-blog-highlights-heartware-international-thoratec-news-corp-walt-disney-and-time-warner

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11772433/1/time-warner-inc-stock-buy-recommendation-reiterated-twx.html

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-11-07/commentary/34964542_1_film-series-film-studios-time-warner

Money Image: http://nyaltnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/6551534889_9c8ae52997.jpg

 

Drum Roll…Me Down The Hill?

TWX – Time Warner Inc

If you haven’t checked the stock TWX lately, then you probably did not notice that we’ve, or I have been losing money on our initial investment. We bought at $45.01 and it closed today at $44.61. Add two $7.95 trade fees for a grand total loss of -1.24% (See Math Below).

Bought: (45.01 * 100) + 7.95 = $4508.95

Sold: (44.61 * 100) – 7.95 = $4453.05

LOSS -$55.90

Percentage loss: Difference between initial investment and ending balance(4508.95-4453.05 = 55.90)/ Initial Investment ($4501 + Trade fee (buy) 7.95 + Trade fee (sell) 7.95 = 4516.90) = .01237, or 1.24%. 

But was this experiment a failure? I do not think any experiment ever is a failure, it is only an opportunity to learn and evolve from the process while changing the way you think about, well anything relative. We predicted the unpredictability of the stock market, just as countless other analysts before had stated.

 

 

Info: How to Create Your Own FREE Investment Portfolio Online

Shortlink this blog entry: http://wp.me/p29JVv-7D

If you don’t already know how to do this by now, it may come in handy. I’m talking of course about how to create a FREE investment portfolio online for your stock research and tracking. This week, to test performance among the major media companies in the stock market i will create a portfolio on and track the major 7 competing media companies with an inception date of 10/12/12. Therefore, whatever the stock opened at on that day, for the purpose of this experiment I invested in 1000 shares, and we will be able to track performance, compare stats, analyze, and report on these investments.

Two of the easiest to use free online portfolio tracking is CNBC.com and of course the awesome entity Google Finance, my favorite. Google Finance is much more user friendly and self explanatory, not to take anything away from CNBC, because they have a great UI as well, but I prefer Google Finance a hair more, I would say. Here we go:

CNBC.com (see below for screen shots)

1. Create Account if you don’t already have one.

2. Hover mouse pointer over INVESTING, move pointer down to PORTFOLIO

3. Create a New Portfolio

4. Name Portfolio

5. Enter information accordingly

_______________________________________________

1. Create Account

Create an account

2. Hover mouse pointer over INVESTING, move pointer down to PORTFOLIO

INVESTING –> PORTFOLIO

3. Create a New Portfolio (upper right box)

Create a new portfolio

4. Name portfolio

5. Enter information accordingly

__________________________________________

Google Finance (see below for screen shots)

1. Sign in/ up Google Account

2. Access Google Finance Application

3. Click Portfolio (left menu)

4. Click create new portfolio (upper right corner)

5. Enter Symbols

6. Edit by clicking ‘Edit transaction’ on menu bar

It should look like this for the current experiment this week, to test performance among the major media companies in the stock market:

Google Finance Screen Shot

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Image Screenshot Sources:

CNBC website screenshots retrieved via CNBC.com on 10/24/12

Google Finance screenshots retrieved via Google.com/finance on 10/24/12

Pace Yourself For The TWX Marathon, Do Not Freak Out

As I stated in the beginning, when I first introduced this blog, profits for publicly traded companies are interdependent on the success of its many umbrella companies. Which for this in this bloggers case is not necessarily a good thing. If you haven’t checked your stocks lately, Time Warner Inc. (TWX) is not doing so great. When you the reader and I sat down to discuss buying TWX the stock was at $45.01, and it is now at $44.02. Ouch! But don’t fret analysts suggest that we buy TWX now for a few different reasons. We will discuss, why The Street analysts support buyingTWX we will explore the reasons why Stockpickr supports the future success of TWX, and finally we’ll discuss other options for the skittish investor  with “The Walking Dead.”

The Street Wire, a blog on TheStreet.com, gives great detail in why you should buy TWX and I agree with the logic. “Compared to its closing price of one year ago, TWX’s share price has jumped by 38.74%, exceeding the performance of the broader market during that same time frame” (TheStreet.com). On top of the great share price, the debt-to-equity is 0.68 with a quick ratio of 1.11 (pertains to short-term cash flow). The companies P/E (profit/ earnings) ratio is 17.7, the net operating cash flow has gone up and “In addition, TIME WARNER INC has also vastly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of 14.61% All these numbers are promising and if you don’t know what they mean you need to get educated. Ask me for resources if you would like. I encourage engagement and also encourage you to buy. Why? Here are a few more reasons to be confident in TWX.

AMC’s “The Walking Dead”

If we have already forgotten what a powerhouse TWX is lets leave it up to Stockpickr.com to remind us of a few excellent companies under the TWX umbrella of holdings,”The firm owns a portfolio of television networks that include HBO, CNN and TNT, the largest combined film studio in the world in Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema, and a publishing arm that produces print names like People and Time.” I simply state to Stockpickr: You had me at HBO. But wait there is more and I didn’t even realize this, but Stockpickr stated that TWX pays a nice 2.3% dividend. Mainly though, we learn that the ability to share its content between networks will bring more benefits, “The biggest benefit to Time Warner today is the fact that the firm is able to share content between units to earn a higher return on every title in its library” (Stockpickr, 10/22/12).

I understand that you invested your children’s college fund on ‘Argo’ but my only advice is: Buy More. But if you don’t want to take a chance on TWX that’s your choice. If you haven’t heard about the recent success about the TV series on AMC entitled “The Walking Dead” it is worth giving a once over, “This year opened with about 11 million viewers (15.2 million overall), reports The Washington Post. And that was without help from DISH Network” (Daily Finance, 10/22/12). The DISH Network is such an important part of this statement because as of Sunday, October 21, 2012 AMC’s “The Walking Dead” was viewable to DISH Network subscribers which will brings the numbers in viewership up. So if you feel like you are the walking dead because of the slide in the TWX stock, then I have two pieces of advice. First, if you are going to panic during the marathon, just remember it’s not a sprint, so stop being a nervous Ned/ Nelly. Secondly, if you’re looking to diversify and buy into a few more options, then take a peek at the Daily Finance article posted here about the up and coming success of “The Walking Dead.”

Bottom line, do not give up on TWX, we invested for a month, and those the rules I have set in place and I am a man of my word, so I’m not quitting Ben Affleck and his ‘Argo.’ I’m not worried though, because reliable, knowledgeable sources like TheStreet.com, Stockpickr.com, and Daily Finance give us news, options, and awareness.

Accredited Sources:

• ‘Argo’ earnings calendar via BoxOfficeMojo.com retrieved on 10/23/12 from:

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=argo.htm

• “The Walking Dead” picture via Daily Finance retrieved 10/23/12 from:

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/10/22/investing-profit-walking-dead-zombie-apocalypse/

• Link to Cramer’s Portfolio retrieved 10/23/12 from: 

http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/prm.do?OID=019175 via http://www.thestreet.com/story/11742310/1/time-warner-inc-stock-buy-recommendation-reiterated-twx.html?puc=aol&cm_ven=aol&source=motleyfool

• The Street Wire. Blog via TheStreet.com. Time warner inc stock buy recommendation reiterated (TWX). Retrieved on 10/23/12 from: 

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11742310/1/time-warner-inc-stock-buy-recommendation-reiterated-twx.html?puc=aol&cm_ven=aol&source=motleyfool

• Elmerraji, J. Blog via Stockpickr.com. 5 rocket stocks ready to rally this week – views. Retrieved on 10/23/12 from:

http://www.stockpickr.com/5-rocket-stocks-ready-rally-week.html-0?puc=aol&cm_ven=aol&source=motleyfool

Release Schedule For Oct. 15th-19th

Potential Profit Calendar: October 2012

TWX is down $0.09/ share today. Boo! Well the show must go on. We just finished a huge weekend at the box office and it’s Monday so I will release the links to DVD’s and Films today. We are almost halfway through the month of October, if you couldn’t already tell from all the Horror film releases, and the rest of this month will be exciting for movie goers, but not so much for investors. For a large view of my Potential Profit Calendar (remember that TUE = DVD Releases & FRI = Theatrical Release) click below:

October Calendar

Like I said before, the rest of this month is not peaking any interest in my studio investment arena, so I will keep you posted on anything else that might be coming up. But for now, keep your eye on Ben Affleck’s ‘Argo’ and its predicted success. Here is a link to the trailer if you haven’t seen it yet.

Click to Watch Trailer

Below you will find a list of the upcoming film releases for this week, complete with a link for more information so you will have plenty of time to plan for your weekend.

Friday 10/19:

Directed by Rob Cohen, Starring Tyler Perry

Alex Cross  

Crime Thriller – Summit Entertainment – PG-13

Will the fourth installment compare? Go see it.

Paranormal Activity 4 

Horror – Paramount – R

My Sources:

Stock quote pricing, performance chart, and news retrieved via CNBC from:

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/twx

DVD/ Film information retrieved from Box Office Mojo from:

http://boxofficemojo.com/schedule/

Movie trailers retrieved from YouTube from:

http://www.youtube.com/

‘Obscure’ to Patent My Ideas/ Property?

Julian Assange Wikileaks named Man of the Year by Le Monde by Abode of Chaos

Is the practice of paying to use someone else’s legal property usually regarded as unclear or obscure? Whenever you download a song on iTunes, is it unclear or obscure to you why you have to pay $0.99-$1.29 per song? Well that is what Geoffrey Ingersol would have you believe as cites Enigma, of TorrentFreak.com. In, A Super Obscure Patent Now Blocks 3D Printing Of Weapons, Food, Prosthetics, Even Human Skin, Ingersol starts with the following, “The future of 3D printing was bright, until an obscure patent filed in 2007 passed just the other day.” It is my understanding that patents are set in place to protect proprietary rights. Getting a head start on fair and reasonable licensing should only be seen as obscure to persons who plan on unlawfully ripping and replicating 3D designs in the future, or has done so in the past. Do me a favor and follow this link to Cramer’s Soundboard page and push the ‘Sell, Sell, Sell’ button rapidly, because I’m not buying what Ingersol is selling.

Retrieved 10/13/12 from: http://www.cnbc.com/id/18724672/

This statement, to me, suggests that it is obscure for a company to patent their own legal property. Ingersol references Enigmax claiming that he/ she “goes into great detail” when discussing the print copying, movie, and music copying industries. I found no such documentation by Enigmax from the links provided in Ingersol’s post. The only evidence I did find was a single sentence stating the following,”During the last 20 years inkjet printers made an unholy mess of the short-run commercial print guy’s business, enabling just about anyone to print on anything from paper to plastics with a relatively tiny outlay” (Enigmax, TorrentFreak.com). The logic that accessibility hindered the print copy industry is valid, but the argument that the new patent being adapted will negatively affect the personal 3D printing industry, is half correct at best.

(c) 2012 Loius Seigal// seigalphotopgraphy.com

If Ingersol’s argument is that these patents will call for only licensed individuals to own and operate these complicated machines, then I may argue that having a professional operate these machines might not be such a bad idea because it may bring down the costs of, for example, going to the dentist. In the case of 3D Systems (DDD), a 3D printing company that is revolutionizing the industry, recently released a new way of printing dental film that, as written by GlobeNewswire in 3D Systems’ VIDAR Digitizer makes Dentistry Today Readers’ Choice, retrieved from eresearch.fidelity.com, “…can also digitize x-ray films for integration into patients’ digital records to achieve a completely digital workflow at a fraction of the cost of digital panoramic solutions.” Therefore, lower operating costs for the business owner, could potentially relate to price savings in services and products for the consumer.

All companies have and will suffer from affordable internet and peer sharing, not only the film and music industries. Whenever I go to a printing store, nowadays, not only do I see the same printing options seen before the inkjet printer boom, but also a multitude of other internet services, hardware upgrades, and various other options that I might not have otherwise seen. Because more and more inkjet printers were affordable and accessible small printing, scratch that, all printing companies had to overcome, evolve, and set new policies in place to keep pace with innovation and adaptation to the market. Even the copying industry was affected by “affordable internet and peersharing.” We are now witnessing the early stages of that cycle once more with 3D printing and its evolution to become more accessible.

According to USLegal.com, “Proprietary information assets are critical to the success of many, perhaps most businesses,” and I think that any artist, business owner, or patent holder would agree. I found another article by Enigmax entitled Paramount Cease and Desist Targets 3D Printer ‘Pirate’ that talks about a designer who illegally distributes replicated objects/ merchandise from feature films and was issued a cease and desist order. Enigmax was defending the ‘pirate’ by ending with, “Hollywood created the replicator, but will they and other rightsholders be able to kill it?” (Enigmax, TorrentFreak.com) After reading Ingersol’s, A Super Obscure Patent Now Blocks 3D Printing Of Weapons, Food, Prosthetics, Even Human Skin, I get the perception that he himself see no wrong doing by the ‘pirate.’ His favorite source is Enigmax, of TorrentFreak.com; case and point.

Sources:

Ingersoll, G. BusinessInsider.com. A Super Obscure Patent Now Blocks 3D Printing Of Weapons, Food, Prosthetics, Even Human Skin. Retrieved 10/13/12 from: http://www.businessinsider.com/new-super-obscure-patent-blocks-3d-printing-of-weapons-food-prosthetics-even-human-skin-2012-10

Stock Quote Pricing via CNBC.com. Retrieved 10/13/12 from: http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/ddd

Enigmax. TorrentFreak.com. 3D Printer DRM Patent To Stop People Downloading a Car. Retrieved 10/13/12 from: http://torrentfreak.com/3d-printer-drm-patent-to-stop-people-downloading-a-car-121012/

Staff. US Legal. Proprietary Information Law & Legal Definition. Retrieved 10/13/12 from: http://definitions.uslegal.com/p/proprietary-information/

Staff. Globe Newswire via eResearch.Fidelity.com. 3D Systems’ VIDAR Digitizer Makes Dentistry Today Readers’ Choice. Retrieved 10/13/12 from: http://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/goto/evaluate/news/basicNewsStory.jhtml?symbols=DDD&storyid=201210100921PRIMZONEFULLFEED10007886&provider=PRIMZONE&product=FULLFEED&hlinks=vnhl

Enigmax. TorrentFreak.com. Paramount Cease and Desist Targets 3D Printer ‘Pirate.’ Retrieved 10/13/12 from: http://torrentfreak.com/paramount-cease-and-desist-targets-3d-printer-pirate-110628/

Important Investment Blogs Compared

What’s your favorite investment blog?

When I started this blog one of the largest problems I faced was finding an investment/ finance focused blog that would talk about the entertainment business, more importantly film studio investing, on a regular basis that would also cover other subsidiary companies under the same umbrella of large corporations. After searching, I discovered a couple of very different blogs that offered relevant film news.

Business Insider, my preferred blog, and Freakonomics are very forthcoming with information, have a multitude of options to browse and retrieve for news and they are focused on all aspects of business which, in the long run, contribute to the overall possibility for profit when investing in corporations with film production studios, like Sony and Time Warner. I prefer Business Insider because the blog roll is instantaneous with a picture and a headline that entices the reader. Freakonomics is still a very important and useful source, but for different reasons. Freakonomics user interface is not as busy, or complicated with as many tabs as Business Insider, and it is a single home page without the need to scroll down to see all the content.

Both blogs include search boxes and social widgets towards the top of the page, but with Business Insider you don’t have to worry about navigating any tabs at the top to begin reading, if you don’t want to, so it is instantaneous. On the other hand, you know what you are getting with Freakonomics every time. One at a time, five featured, self scrolling blogs are available to view and their are tabs to help you navigate to different services. I recomment both blogs as credible, instant, and interesting forms of engaging information.

Which #1 Studio Has Grossed $1.3 Billion In 2012, So Far?

Who is #1?

According to boxofficemojo.com, the movie studio with the most market share, at 16.1%, is Sony/ Columbia. This percentage translates to a $1.3 billion total gross from 22 movies in 2012. The highest grossing movie, thus far, for Sony/ Columbia is The Amazing Spider-Man, starring Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone, with $262 million at the box office. In second place, we find MIB3, starring Will Smith, Josh Brolin, and Tommy Lee Jones, which grossed $179 million.

Previously, I invested in SNE, just before MIB3 was released on 5/25/12, and held it for a month. According to CNBC.com, SNE stock opened at $13.30/ share on 5/25/12. One month later, 6/25/12, SNE stock opened at $14.10, which amounts to an awesome 5.67% gain. Therefore, count a victory against the market for us! If I were to invest in a bond, sit on it for 6 months to a year, I might gain 3%, but we almost doubled that amount in one month with our reasonable, well-researched, and analyzed experiment.

SNE Experiment: Savvy or Sappy Investment Part II

Will I be the smartest financiest (that didn’t sound right) dude ever in world history of the earth planet? Predicting the success of “MIB3” and turning a profit from its stock SNE, seems like an easy task to me, but what might Jim Cramer of “Mad Money” think of my hair-brained yet logical scheme? On 5/26/12, Cramer talked on his show “Mad Money” about predicting stock success, stating that it is almost impossible because stocks will sometimes do the opposite of what they are expected, even if the news and profits are good at that current time. He was trained always to look at the success, profits, etc. of companies to invest in the long run. I have never heard him recommend day trading and even though my 17 day experiment is not exactly day trading it’s not exactly long-term trading either.   Check out Cramer’s “Mad Money” Soundboard by clicking on the picture here.

“MIB3” was released on Friday, 5/25/12 and it finally knocked “The Avengers” off its 4 week streak at the number one spot at the box office. Holding the spot next weekend doesn’t seem as it will be too much of a feat, but only time will tell. I visited a website entitled BoxOfficeMojo.com that reports on box office earnings and keeps all-time earnings stats; it is a very informative website and I highly suggest you check it out. Apparently, “MIB3” was a big hit in China where, “The movie had it’s best start in China with 19.5 million, which ranks seventh all-time for a Hollywood movie there” (boxofficemojo.com). I think its because Will Smith won the “Ninja Warrior” competition in Japan…oh wait, that doesn’t make much sense.

SNE was down Thursday and Friday, but Tuesday, 5/29/12 could be the beginning of a streak that could prove profitable. As we noticed in the previous blog post, DIS went a very profitable streak and peaked after 17 days. Will SNE match the success? We shall see! Hang on to your money if you don’t wanna grab my hand like they did in “Thelma & Louise” and drive off the cliff, into the sunset, holding hands, because I’ve invested in the risky stocks with which you don’t have to invest. But, also if anyone has any advice please feel free to speak up, or forever hold your peace…at our wedding, I love you.